The sports issue

Should trans women compete in women's sports?

With the start of the FIFA Women’s World Cup, I wanted to take a look at the current state of trans women in sports.

If you’re unaware, one of the major concerns about transgender people is their inclusion in sports. Now, this only cuts one direction, for relatively obvious reasons. Trans men are generally accepted in men’s sports¹, but trans women are seen as controversial.

Cries that trans women’s inclusion will “destroy women’s sports” are easy to find.

So let me talk about the concern first, then the current state of things.

What is the concern?

On average, men are taller, heavier, and have more muscle mass than women. In the Olympics, for every comparable event, the men’s world record is faster than the women’s. There do exist sports where women are taking the lead, but they are much rarer. Some sports, like basketball, almost look like a completely different sport when played by elite men vs. elite women. The skill is still elite for the WNBA, but only seven women have ever dunked in the WNBA, whereas almost every NBA player is capable of it. I personally find the WNBA to be highly entertaining and well worth watching, but clearly I’m in the minority. The highest paid NBA player makes over 200x what the highest paid WNBA player (Jackie Young) makes². By the way, this plays a role in the skill disparity as well. LeBron James has been reported to spend $1.5M per year just on his personal care team (chefs, physical therapists, etc). That’s six times the entire salary of Young. In terms of threats to women’s sports, my personal view is that we need to start with figuring out how to get more people watching women’s sports.

My own experience on hormone replacement therapy (HRT)³ for eight months so far is that I have absolutely lost significant muscle. Stairs are harder than they used to be, I can’t throw things as far, making my muscle memory for shooting a basketball comically inaccurate.

That said, I’m still 6’2”, and would enjoy a huge advantage over my 5’0” wife if we went to the local basketball court, simply because of how dominant height is as a factor in basketball. She would likewise beat me easily in any endurance sport or less height-centric sports.

But still, a cisgender man, on average, has an advantage over a cisgender woman in most sports. Which leads to the question: does a trans woman maintain that advantage?

Here, we need to discuss two different forms of advantage.

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Male Puberty

For anyone who goes through male puberty, they are likely to grow taller, and with denser bones, than they would if they went through female puberty. This is not reversible by any modern treatments. Slight variations in the shape of the bone structure also occur⁴, but it’s unclear if those have any impact on athletic ability.

For a sport in which height grants a significant advantage, these effects endure even after hormone replacement therapy.

Testosterone-based Muscle

Your muscles are being rebuilt all the time, and a significant factor in this is the hormones in your body. Testosterone signals the body to grow more muscle than estrogen would. The important thing here is that transgender women, after some time on hormone replacement therapy, will have similar muscle mass to a cisgender woman with similar genetics. This would be similar to someone who takes Human Growth Hormone while in their teen years (to grow taller, etc), or takes some form of performance enhancing drug, but then stops. After some time, their body returns to “normal”, and whatever advantage they had at the time will no longer be present.

As far as I know, all elite sports that allow trans women to compete mandate that the trans women must have suppressed testosterone for at least a year, sometimes longer before they can compete. This results in them having feminine muscle tone by the time they compete.

I’ve only rarely⁵ heard someone argue that a trans woman should be allowed to compete with no testosterone suppression, and without further study, I’d be very worried about that.

Transphobia in disguise

Let’s pause and remember: A large number of the people who oppose trans women in sports also oppose gender transition generally. Many won’t even use a trans person’s name and new pronouns. That’s hardly a good faith position - these are people who simply won’t accept the existence of trans people, and are including women’s sports as one of the grievances.

This is also where you get the concern that a mediocre cisgender male athlete will say “I’m trans!” and then compete and dominate in women’s sports. But that’s not even possible, since testosterone suppression is required for a lengthly period of time. If this was happening, we should see stories of men claiming to be trans, and then after they retire from their sport, immediately detransitioning. I’ve never heard of such a case.

This article isn’t meant for them. It’s meant for those who genuinely do accept trans women as who they are, but are curious about the effect on women’s sports. That’s a good faith question, and one I had myself.

So how do we know if it’s fair?

Given the difficulty of modeling it, I suggest that the best way to know if it’s fair, is to look at the population of champions in women’s sports, and see if trans women are overrepresented. If trans women are truly dominant, you’d expect to see more of them on the top of podiums. Roughly 0.6% of the population is transgender, so specifically, you’d expect to see a minimum of 0.6% of champions be transgender before we’d have any reason for concern.

So what do we see?

Trans women⁶ are allowed to compete at the Women's World Cup (since 2011). But there are no known trans women at this year's tournament (or previous years).

Facts:

• There are 736 women competing, and not one of them are trans.

• Roughly 0.6% of the population is trans (remarkably consistent across cultures)

So you'd expect there to be ~4 trans women competing even if being trans conferred no advantage.

Quinn, a member of Canada's women's team, is often referred to as the 1st "non-binary trans athlete to win an Olympic medal", but coverage often fails to note (Quinn, a member of Canada's women's team, is often referred to as the 1st "non-binary trans athlete to win an Olympic medal", but coverage often fails to note (suspicious) they were assigned female at birth so have no advantage over c*s women. For example, this⁷ from @NBCNews:

LGBTQ advocates say the debate over transgender inclusion in women’s sport has also made for an increasingly hostile environment for gender diverse people in North America.

Quinn — who goes by one name — became the first openly nonbinary trans athlete to win an Olympic medal when Canada captured women’s soccer gold in Tokyo.

The 27-year-old, who will make their second World Cup appearance in Australia, told the Toronto Star they have witnessed growing negativity towards gender diverse people.

“I think it is a scary time, for me,” Quinn said. “I think I do have a lot of points of privilege when entering this conversation, so I have to be mindful of that. But I think the reality is, it’s scary.”

The Women's World Cup is among the most welcoming athletic events for LGBTQ+ athletes, with 11.8% identifying as non-binary, lesbian, bi, or queer. USWNT star Megan Rapinoe stated she'd be happy to play with a trans woman.

Beyond soccer, 25% of the WNBA is out as some form of lesbian, bi, pan, or queer. And trans women have been allowed by rule in the WNBA since 2016 (contingent on hormone therapy, etc). But there's not been a single trans woman in the WNBA. Recall here that basketball is among the most height-advantaged sports in the world.

The NCAA has been mostly accepting of trans athletes. Despite this, only two (2!) trans women have ever competed in women's Division I. One is Lia Thomas, who has been the subject of non-stop conservative pearl clutching after she won the 500m freestyle championship in 2022.

No trans woman has ever medaled at the Olympics, in any sport. In fact, the Tokyo Summer games in 2021 were the first time any trans woman had even competed, despite having been allowed since 2004.

Hormones: The organizations mentioned have restrictions on allowable testosterone levels (which must be met for a minimum of 12 months in all cases, longer in some - four years for the Olympics) for trans women to compete in women's sports, which I support.

But if male puberty "imbues athletes with a huge physical advantage that transition does not mitigate", then we would expect a *minimum* of 0.6% of athletes in these women's sports to be trans women, including 0.6% of medals and championships.

But in the NCAA, there's exactly two trans women who have ever won a national championship at any level. Lia Thomas won the 500 meter freestyle swimming, and CeCé Telfer won the Division II 400 meter hurdles. No trans woman has ever won an NCAA championship as part of a team.

And no trans women even compete in the WNBA or the Women's World Cup - two of the most queer-inclusive women's sporting events in the world. So I have to ask: What is this debate actually about?

Those opposing trans women in sports have repeatedly said that inclusion will "destroy women's sports". But you know what *does* destroy women's sports? Canceling events just to keep a trans woman out. Which is exactly what Disc Golf Pro Tour did this month instead of letting Natalie Ryan (a trans woman) compete.

So the evidence seems to run contrary to the idea that trans women have some huge advantage. In fact, if anything, the evidence points to trans women being at a *disadvantage*. Furthermore, the evidence is utterly damning to the idea that men will transition just to win at women's sports.

So is this about fairness, in which 0.6% of champions would be trans women?

Is it about trans women at all?

Or is it cynical politics - conservatives using women's sports as a wedge issue to drive people to vote for them? This, it turns out, is very well documented.

The idea of trans girls and women competing against cisgender female athletes tends to trigger emotional responses, playing on stereotypes about gender and biology. The issue acts as “sort of a gateway drug for people into the larger debate around gender and who gets to call themselves a woman,” says a conservative who works on Title IX issues, who requested anonymity to speak candidly about the rise in legislation.

And here you can hear from one of those who specifically is driving this:

“What makes this issue of trans sports different, and so explosive politically… is because politicians are willing to talk about it,” says Terry Schilling, the president of the conservative advocacy group American Principles Project (APP). APP spent over $5 million in the 2020 election combined with their affiliated super PAC on ads arguing Democrats’ support for trans athletes posed a threat to women’s sports, among other messaging points.

You can hear more about APP and Terry Schilling (and more) from the SPLC, and how they advocated the switch from talking about CRT to trans rights. And even more here from PBS.

What’s next?

First, I recommend this practice: when someone brings up trans women in sports, ask or investigate to see whether they support trans people at all. If they won’t use someone’s preferred pronouns (as David French refused to do when discussing Lia Thomas on The Holy Post last year), that’s a good clue. Similarly, if they refer to “biological males in women’s sports.” That’s phrasing a trans ally would likely never use, or would happily change after hearing they shouldn’t use it (better phrasing is “those assigned male at birth” or “those who went through male puberty.”). Do they also support bans on gender affirming care?⁸ Do they think trans women should have to use men’s restrooms (link is to my own previous article on that topic)? One last red flag is if they use the phrase “real women” to refer to “cisgender women.” Trans women and cis women are both real women.

Second, please know: every sports governing body is working through this. Some have come down harsher, others more lenient. I suspect this will be a space with evolution and trial and error for a while. If at some point we see a higher percentage of trans women holding championship trophies, then I’d fully support finding ways to ensure an equal playing field. Women’s sports are hugely important to women and girls across the world, and I’m a big fan. If cis women are finding that are being surpassed routinely by trans women, that will defeat much of the point of women’s sports. That said, we must expect that trans women will occasionally win, and not immediately cry out “unfair!” every time it happens.

And finally - if someone has an issue with trans women in sports, and it’s only based on an anecdote or two, share this article with them, or one of the many I’ve linked to. The data today shows that trans women are not taking over women’s sports, even in the sports that would be most welcoming and potentially easiest for a trans woman to succeed in. But just saying “this will happen someday”, is not a valid argument. Unless and until this changes, let them play.⁹

Thanks for reading, comments welcome!¹⁰

Love you all,

Celeste Irwin

1. They are seen as, if anything, having a disadvantage due to being assigned female at birth.

2. Golden State’s Steph Curry will make $51,915,615 in the 2023-2024 season, while Jackie Young of the Las Vegas Aces will make $252,450 in the 2023 season, for a ratio of 205.6.

3. I suppress testosterone using spironolactone, and supplement estrogen with regular injections of estradiol valerate, which is bio-identical estrogen. I also take finasteride to try to initiate hair re-growth along my hair line and bald spot, and have recently added medroxyprogesterone, which is another feminizing hormone.

4. The pelvis of someone who went through feminine puberty tilts differently than that of someone who goes through masculine puberty. It’s also wider. Because these are skeletal changes, they will either occur slowly or not at all in people transitioning from male to female after puberty.

5. Occasionally, I’ll see someone say “if trans women are women, then trans women should be allowed in women’s sports without any medical intervention.” I think this is a semantic error. Women’s sports today exist to create a space where women can compete with similar athletes, instead of going up against men. Which is to say, I think it’s more reasonable to see them as a class for cis women and those who have similar-enough physiology as a group - meaning cis women + hormonally transitioned trans women (or non-binary people who were assigned male at birth but have undergone feminizing HRT).

6. This section is a lightly edited twitter X thread I wrote on July 21st. If it comes across as a bit different than my usual cadence/style, that’s why.

7. FYI, this is *not* responsible journalism, on a number of levels. Notably it references the USWNT "loss" to a boys team in 2017, debunked here. Short version - it was a scrimmage meant for the boys to get some practice against an elite team, and for the USWNT to get some conditioning and ball movement practice. This is the kind of twisted misinformation that is used all the time.

8. Some views on this are more reasonable, and I’ll talk about this at length in future articles. Suffice it to say, if they are for categorical bans on gender affirming care at all ages, they aren’t exactly supportive of trans people.

9. For the record, I skipped it in this article, but at elementary and junior high levels, particularly, I see absolutely no reason not to let trans girls play on the girls teams. There’s little riding on the wins and losses at that level, but it’s a huge opportunity for friendship and socialization, not to mention building good health habits.

10. I know this post had little to do with theology or faith - some posts will be like that, especially as trans people are the subject of so much political action right now.